The question looming on many minds around the world following the death of Pope Francis on Monday is who will become the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church.
The selection process will begin when all cardinals under the age of 80 who are eligible to participate are summoned to Rome to prepare for the secret conclave inside the Sistine Chapel to choose the next pontiff. This gathering typically begins between 15 to 20 days after the pope’s death.
A woman pays respects in front of a portrait of the late Pope Francis outside the Caacupe Parish in Buenos Aires, April 21, 2025.
Juan Mabromata/AFP via Getty Images
While the inner workings of the conclave and how the group ultimately decides on a new pontiff remain a secret, experts are still weighing in on who could be the likely front-runners for the papacy.
Francis, who was a progressive leader of the church, had appointed roughly 80% of the cardinals who are eligible to vote for the new pope, according to Miles Pattenden, historian of the Catholic Church at Oxford University. But, Pattenden told ABC News that does not mean the next pontiff will directly mirror the same values as Francis.
“It’s a mistake to think of [Francis’ cardinals] as one homogenous block. Not all of them will have shared Francis’ views,” Pattenden told ABC News. “Some of them will have been open about that. He appointed them because they represented important areas or factions in the church that he thought should be represented. Other ones possibly weren’t in harmony with all of Francis’ views, but kept quiet about it. Now he’s no more, we will see where their actual positions are.”
Any baptized Catholic male is eligible to take Francis’ place, but Pattenden said Pietro Parolin, the cardinal secretary of state, and Luis Tagle, the archbishop of Manila in the Philippines, are the main front-runners.
Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin smiles as he is welcomed by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier for a meeting at the Bellevue palace in Berlin, Germany, June 29, 2021.
Michael Sohn/AP
Parolin, who “looks very much on paper like he should be the obvious continuity candidate,” has been the secretary of state since August 2013 and is a “vastly experienced Vatican diplomat,” Petterden said.
“He’s got all the right credentials. The question is whether most of the cardinals want that or not,” Pattenden said.
Cristina Traina, religious studies professor at New York’s Fordham University, said Parolin is someone who is “extraordinarily versed in the internal workings of the Vatican, but that could count against him if they are interested in continuing Vatican reforms.”
A candidate similar in “charisma and emphasis on pastoral mission” to Francis is Tagle, who was appointed by Pope Benedict as the archbishop of Manila in 2011, Pattenden said.
Cardinal Luis Tagle smiles as he listens reporters questions during a press conference on the Synod at the Vatican, Oct. 23, 2018.
Alessandra Tarantino/AP
“His downside is that he may be a little bit young, he’s only 67,” Pattenden said. “It’s not clear that he has the right kind of administrative experience. If the cardinals are looking for someone to steady the ship and to make sure that the Vatican stays in order, maybe they want someone else.”
Even though Francis “elevated a lot of cardinals with generally progressive views” and “it would be fairly automatic they’d choose one of their own, someone in Francis’ image,” Pattenden said there are still conservative candidates that could gain recognition, including Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo, Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson and Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah.
Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo is interviewed by The Associated Press, in Budapest, April 20, 2023.
Denes Erdos/AP
If the “more obvious front-runners don’t command majority appeal” during the selection process, Pattenden said European moderates, including Archbishop of Bologna Matteo Zuppi, Archbishop of Marseille Jean-Marc Aveline and Archbishop of Malta Mario Grech, could also potentially gain consensus among the conclave.
Cardinal Robert Sarah, prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments, arrives for the presentation of Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke’s book Divine Love Made Flesh, in Rome, Oct. 14, 2015.
Andrew Medichini/AP
Regardless of who the successor will be, Traina told ABC News the new papacy will vary from Francis’, since not many candidates hold his stance of being pastorally progressive yet theologically conservative.
The only two that Traina said resemble Francis’ approach would be Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouelett or Dutch Cardinal Willem Eijk.
Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet attends a Mass inside St. Peter’s Basilica, at the Vatican, March 12, 2013.
Andrew Medichini/AP
“Successors have different skills than their predecessors, and that’s not because people are rejecting the predecessor skills,” Traina said. “It wouldn’t be surprising for there to be a change, the question is, which direction?”
ABC News’ Phoebe Natanson contributed to this report.
