After major potential Republican candidates for key U.S. Senate races in 2026 passed on running, some Republicans are split on whether their party is struggling to recruit competitive Senate candidates.
There are 35 Senate seats up for election in 2026 — 33 in regular elections and two in special elections. Two of them, in Georgia and Michigan, could be a toss-up after two high-profile Republicans opted not to run in 2026, while seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire being vacated lean Democratic, and two seats from incumbents in Maine and North Carolina lean Republican, according to the Cook Political Report.
Republicans currently hold 53 seats to Democrats’ 45. Two independents caucus with Democrats.
“My goal is to stay in the majority; my stretch goal is to add seats. … I’d like to be at 55,” Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, recently told Axios.
The seat up for election in Georgia — held by incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who is running for reelection — has received close attention from Republicans, who hope they can flip what is widely viewed as a vulnerable seat.
But Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who had been seen as a major contender for the seat, took himself out of contention, saying he would not run for the seat.
Brian Kemp, Governor of Georgia, speaks during a meeting of the Republican Governors Association at the National Building Museum in Washington, Feb. 20, 2025.
Samuel Corum/AFP via Getty Images
“I have decided that being on the ballot next year is not the right decision for me and my family,” Kemp wrote in a statement on X in early May.
Senate Republican leaders, including Scott and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and even President Donald Trump had spent several months attempting to convince Kemp to launch a bid against Ossoff. Kemp wrote that he informed Trump of his decision not to run the morning he posted.
“Brian Kemp, being the most popular Republican moderate in Georgia history, was the ideal candidate to take [Ossoff] on,” Ryan Mahoney, a Georgia-based Republican strategist and former communications director for the Georgia Republican Party, told ABC News on Monday.
In New Hampshire, Republicans faced a similar situation when the popular former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican who had been mulling a run for Senate for the seat being vacated by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. D-N.H., said in early April that he had decided not to run.
“I kept the door open a little bit, and I thought about, is it right for me and my family? It’s just not right for us,” Sununu told a radio station in April.
Sununu has said he still thinks the seat will be in play for Republicans.
New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu introduces former UN ambassador and 2024 Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley before she speaks at a campaign town hall event at Kennett High School in Conway, New Hampshire, Dec. 28, 2023.
Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images
Some Republicans have pointed to Kemp’s decision, and to a lesser extent Sununu’s, as signs that Republicans are having challenges recruiting centrist candidates who would appeal to voters statewide. Some have also felt that candidates who appear too tied to Trump or too right-wing will struggle in statewide races even if they clear the primary, if the White House and Trump continue to face backlash toward policies and federal government cuts.
“I think it’s a problem. I think that Trump has put a damper on that for the party in general. … Trump demands absolute loyalty and nothing else matters but fealty to him. And that makes people who want to talk about issues and things that their particular state or constituents care about — [it] makes it very difficult,” said ABC News contributor Barbara Comstock, a Republican who formerly represented Virginia in the House.
But other Republicans are saying they don’t believe Kemp and Sununu not running indicate any sign of challenges with recruiting candidates.
A national Republican working on major Senate races told ABC News that Kemp’s decision came as no surprise, arguing that the governor made a decision based on wanting to be present with his family after a long tenure as governor.
As for concerns over public opinion of Trump, the operative also pointed to Trump’s win in Georgia in 2024 and enthusiasm among Republicans in New Hampshire and noted that both the White House and candidates will continue to engage voters in the midterm elections to motivate them to turn out regardless of candidate.
Mahoney, separately, pointed to how even though the party in power usually performs worse in a midterm election, news around the economy and other issues is constantly shifting and no one can predict yet if Trump’s presidency and agenda by 2026 will be popular or “an albatross.”
“It’s too early to know, and I think it would be really foolish for Democrats to assume, that just because history tells a story, that that is going to continue in 2026,” Mahoney said.
Since Kemp’s decision, one member of Georgia’s congressional delegation has since launched a bid, while a second just announced she won’t run for the seat.
Rep. Buddy Carter, who represents Georgia’s 1st Congressional District, announced last week that he is entering the 2026 Senate race. In his announcement video, he branded himself as a “MAGA Warrior,” showing multiple pictures of him alongside Trump and a clip of Trump praising him.
He later told ABC News that he had been in touch with the White House about his Senate candidacy and that Trump will make an endorsement decision in the primary in the future.
Georgia insurance and safety fire commissioner John King separately announced a bid for the seat on Monday.
But questions swirled for weeks over whether Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene — a firebrand conservative and one of Trump’s most loyal allies in the House — would run for Senate. She told reporters on Wednesday she was considering either that or running for governor of Georgia. (Kemp is term-limited.)
DOGE Subcommittee chair US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Repulbican from Georgia, speaks during a hearing on trans people in women’s sports on Capitol Hill in Washington, May 7, 2025.
Oliver Contreras/AFP via Getty Images
But on Friday, in an essay posted on X, Greene announced that she had decided not to run for Senate.
“I love my home state of Georgia so much. The people here may not be rich with the world’s riches, but they are overflowing with kindness, love, family values, and a deep sense of joy, whether they’re sitting on the front porch or the tailgate of a pickup truck. … These are the people I fight for,” she wrote, before turning to criticize reports about donors and “elites” who are advocating candidates besides her.
“Can I deliver for the people of Georgia in the Senate? Can I fulfill my promises? Can I actually save this country from the inside? Here’s the hard truth: the Senate doesn’t work,” she wrote. “It’s designed to obstruct the will of the people and protect the Uniparty’s grip on power.”
After criticizing Senate leadership and senators who, she said, “sabotage Trump’s agenda,” Greene was forthright: “Someone once said, ‘The Senate is where good ideas go to die.’ They were right. That’s why I’m not running.”
There were some early mixed signals over how Greene would have performed if she indeed ran against Ossoff. A recent poll from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution found that Ossoff and Kemp would be in a dead heat in a hypothetical general election matchup but that Ossoff would lead some other hypothetical candidates, including Greene, if the 2026 election were held today. (Like any poll about an election over a year out, much can still change.)
And at least some Republicans may be privately applauding her decision.
“I think for most Georgia Republicans — they were excited to see that [announcement]. They know that she has general election issues because of being a firebrand and because of her public persona,” Mahoney said, adding that Georgia Republicans are likely looking for a candidate who can net endorsements, raise money, and consolidate the base.
“I think for the slate of candidates now, there’s a lot more comfort that they would be able to win a nomination, to win the general, which is the most important here — there’s no real prize for being the nominee. You have to win the general election to become senator.”
Greene had brushed off any concerns that she could win in a primary but not a general statewide election in Georgia.
“They said the same thing about Donald Trump when he ran in 2016, and they said the same thing about it in 2024. People back in Georgia, they know that’s a lie,” Greene told reporters on Wednesday.
She added in her post on Friday, “Beating Jon Ossoff? That would be easy.”
Sen. Jon Ossoff, leaves the Democratic senate luncheon in the U.S. Capitol, Jan. 21, 2025.
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images
The NRSC has indicated it’ll consider getting involved in Senate primaries on a case-by-case basis. Scott, who chairs the NRSC, told Fox News in February, “Whatever is in the best interest of the voters in each state, I will make a state-by-state decision on how we play and where we play.”
“Republicans are working as one team with President Trump to deliver for the American people, protect our Majority in 2026, and hold Senate Democrats and candidates in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire accountable for their radical, out-of-touch priorities,” NRSC Communications Director Joanna Rodriguez said in a statement to ABC News.
On the other side of the aisle, Democrats have been celebrating Kemp’s decision, thinking that it puts them in a strong position to take on whoever challenges Ossoff. Democrats have also said they think they can expand their Senate map, and that they intend to play in as many seats as they can.
But the Democratic Party, as it faces low approval ratings and continues to digest its heavy losses in 2024, faces a very challenging Senate map in 2026.
Many of the Senate seats up for election are in solidly Republican-leaning states, and the Democrats face the prospect of defending Ossoff’s seat in Georgia, as well as seats in Michigan and New Hampshire where Democratic incumbents are retiring.
“Senate Democrats are positioned to win seats in 2026 as midterm backlash driven by rising costs and threats to Social Security and Medicaid drags down Republican Senate candidates and puts their majority at risk,” Maeve Coyle, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told ABC News in a statement.
But some Democrats are less bullish. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who was Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate in 2024, said recently that he does not feel confident Democrats will be able to win the Senate in 2026.
“I think we will take back the House. I am very pessimistic about the Senate, just to be honest with you,” he said during a talk in April at the Harvard Institute of Politics.
ABC News’ Brittany Shepherd, Lalee Ibssa and Jay O’Brien contributed to this report.
